Castilla y León’s Hispalink Group upgrades its growth forecasts by a tenth For the community in December, this year’s rate was 2.1%, a tenth below the national average. The network, in which 15 Spanish universities participate, published its estimates in June, improving the board’s official forecast for this year by four tenths (1.7%). However, this figure is worse than in 2023 (2.6% according to their estimate).
Castile and Leon It will be the eighth autonomous in development this year If predictions come true Hispalink, a far cry from the 3% for the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands, but 1.7% from the red lights of Extremadura. The report estimates that Castilla y León will grow at a good pace in the next two years, 2.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, with Spain averaging 2.4% in both years, Ical said.
However, the Hispalink Network cautions that “difficulties in making predictions in a geostrategic or, directly, economic context, It forces us to be cautious about current forecasts, not too far ahead” and indicates that revisions may be further consolidated as statistical and economic data clarify current unknowns.
Entering the document, the analysis of the university network understands the increase in employment this year in the community.There will be “a moderate company”. And predicts it could be “slightly less than 1%”. insists that The increase in the national group may be slightly higher, with average annual growth estimated between 1.5 and 2%.
Regional economic growth forecast.
Report This year explores the dynamism of the economy And he points out that part of this behavior will derive from an expected increase in agricultural value added to 6.5%.With significant growth in agricultural production, it will exceed 50% annuallyThey will however be linked to recessionary levels in the livestock sub-sector and may be projected on regional employment for the sector as a whole. Agricultural growth contributes about two-tenths of the rate of variation The overall regional economy is projected to decline by 3.9% from 2023 due to drought.
For the non-agricultural economy, the network estimates overall growth of 1.9%, with a contribution of 1.8 percentage points to the increase in regional added value. For industrial activities, volatility is closer to four percentage points One point above the estimated national increase of 3.1% to the branch.
“This increase Coordinating regional industrial recoveryEnergy and war problems, after the weakness still derived from the epidemic, the crisis of the elements and a certain weakness in demand, caused the Castilian and Leonese industrial demand”, they highlight from Hispaling.
Document This acceleration promises to represent eight-tenths of regional growth by 2024.Of these, five were derived from the manufacturing and three from the additional energy sub-branch.
Perspectives on Hispaling They are very moderate for the construction branchand an annual estimate of 1.9% in 2024, With a one-tenth contribution to the growth of the entire regional group. This increase will be lower than the national estimate of 3.9&, although it can be considered “a revision after a significant estimated increase in regional construction at 4.2& in 2023”. 1.8 points higher than the national growth of 2.4%.
For its part, the increase in value added in the services branch is estimated at 1.3% in 2024. The rate is half a percentage point lower than the overall forecast of 1.8% for Spain. “This moderation in growth is a correction after strong growth in the years 2021 to 2023., at an annual average of 4.1% every three years,” they clarify. Hispalink explains that the important weight of the branch in the overall regional economy makes moderate sectoral growth “relevant, representing a contribution of close to one percentage point to the growth of the regional economy”.
As for the prospects for 2025 and 2026, the network says “as a very plausible scenario, Slightly more than the current yearA slight acceleration reaching an annual rate of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 for the entire Castilian and Leonese economy, with A similar increase in the non-agricultural economyAt the expense of the erratic behavior of the agricultural branch.”
Specifically, the analysis shows that By 2025 the industry will decline to 2%to recover to 2.8% in 2026 and both construction and services will slightly improve their annual growth rate, 2.4 and 2.3% rates ending in 2026, respectively.
