In Sunday’s election, National Committee And its Conservative allies They got 33.15% of the votes, the home ministry said. Provisional results.
WATCH: What does US government plan to send military contractors to Ukraine mean?
Left Alliance New Popular Front (NFP) It won 27.99% of the vote, making it the second largest political force in the country behind the President’s Party MacronHe got 20.04% in the election and was a huge loser.
Republicans (LR)The traditional right-wing party got only 6.57% of the vote.
What’s next? These are the keys:
1.- How many constituencies are in dispute?
French far-right National Rally (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen and party leader Jordan Bartella take to the stage to address campaigners after European elections. (Photo by Julian de Rosa / AFP).
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France’s National Assembly has 577 seats And legislators are elected district-wise. In First roundA candidate must secure more than 50% of the votes to secure a seat.
In Sunday’s election, 37 representatives from the RN and 32 from the NFP have already secured their seatsTwo from the Macronist bloc and three for the LR and its allies.
for that Second round All candidates with more than 12.5% of the votes and less than 50% of the votes are qualified, so each district may have two, three or more candidates. Whoever gets the most votes gets the seat.
Next Sunday National Committee It will lead in 485 constituencies. In the first round, candidates extreme right Out of 297, they ranked first.
It should be noted at this point that A political party with at least 289 seats can obtain an absolute majority in the French National Assembly.
The Left Alliance qualified for the second round out of 446 seats, out of which it came first in 157 seats on Sunday.
President’s block Macron Candidates will contest in 319 constituencies. Out of which he got first place only in 69.
A profile of left-wing and far-right voters in France. (AFP).
Comment…
Macron polarized France and now he is paying the consequences
Battle Francesco Tucci
Internationalist and professor at UPC and PUCP
Macron made his move by calling early elections aimed at restoring minimal representation in the National Assembly, but the results have blown up in his face. Now that his party is the third force, the difference is significant.
This is the result polarization Between the left and the right, which he cultivated himself, at the beginning of his mandate he presented himself as a moderate president who tried to carry out his policies, and to do so he appealed to the polarities. He is paying the price today.
If the far right can get Absolute majority In the National Assembly, Coexistence can be clearly imposed on the agent. In that case, the relationship between powers would change, as a parliamentary majority would establish who would be prime minister, in this case someone from the extreme right.
The president’s power will be severely limited, he will focus more on foreign policy and defense, and he will not be able to govern as before.
Why was the national team promoted? Regarding the father, Marine Le Pen changed her speech, her proposal was more comprehensive.
Also, Le Pen is taking advantage of the negative economic situation to gain votes, as the European Union is facing an economic crisis due to the war in Ukraine, among other factors.
Now the position of the far right is not only Eurosceptic, but they are against this conflict, they want the war to end anyway, and it ends in Russia’s favor.
Part of the French population is fed up with the economic crisis, internal issues that have been poorly handled by Macron, and those results are paying off as he promotes reforms without consulting social fronts.
So, at this juncture, the far-right program seems to be approaching the electoral needs of the French. Let’s see what they can do with a president like Macron They are going to limit each other in coexistence. This is a complicated situation.
We also have to see if the far right gives way and starts to change its discourse, as happened with Giorgia Meloni in Italy.
2.- What is the strategy for the second round?
A journalist holds up cards marked “Legislatives 2024” in Paris on June 30, 2024. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP).
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Leaders Left Alliance They have announced the withdrawal of candidates who finished third and are running against one of the far-right.
This way, they want to validate their vote in a better position with options to defeat the candidate National Committee.
Spokespersons of the Centrist Alliance Macron They also said some of their candidates would resign before the second round to try to prevent a national rally.
The AP noted that this strategy has worked in the past Pen And his predecessor, The National Front, were considered political pariahs by a large section of the citizenry. But now the practice has broad support across the country.
For its part, the national team said on Monday it will study strategic moves for access Republicans An absolute majority should be attempted.
3.- What are the possible scenarios?
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to reporters at the end of the European Council summit at the EU headquarters in Brussels on June 28, 2024. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP).
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And National Committee receives Absolute majorityPresident Macron A member of that new majority would be forced to appoint as Prime Minister.
This political situation is called in France “Living together”. If it is passed, the government will have to implement policies contrary to the President’s plan.
In recent times There were three cohabitations in France: Between 1986 and 1988, Jacques Chirac He was the prime minister of a socialist presidency François Mitterrand.
The second is coexistenceMitterrand played the head of state and the neo-Coalist Edward BalladourBetween 1993 and 1995.
The Third It was under the presidency of Chirac and from 1997 to 2002 the socialist Lionel Josban was prime minister.
In a government Living togetherThe Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, heads the government and introduces bills.
The President holds certain powers Foreign Policy, European Affairs and Security. He is also the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and holds nuclear codes, AP said.
Jordan BartellaThe far-right leader, who could become prime minister if the National Party wins an absolute majority, said he “wants to be a coexistence prime minister who respects the constitution and the role of the president, but is inflexible about the policies we will implement.”
Bartella opposes sending French troops to Ukraine and rejects the delivery of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of striking the Russian border.
He has said that he will not step down as Macron’s term ends in 2027.
If no party gets an absolute majority Macron A Prime Minister can be appointed from the parliamentary group that has the most seats in the National Assembly.
If it applies in that situation National CommitteeMarine Le Pen has already said she rejects the option, as it would mean a far-right government could soon be toppled by a no-confidence vote.
An impossible option it is Macron Encourage a broad coalition of left and right.
