GDP | Peruvian Economy | Macroregions: Which will have the biggest growth in 2024? | economy

According to Macroconsult's Senior Economist, Isaac Foinquinos, the Northern Macroregion has the potential to lead Peru's economy by 2024. As he explains, The Northern Zone may grow by around 3% over the national estimateThey estimated that Peru's GDP would improve by an average of 2%.

Foinquinos points out that this improvement indicates a rebound, as the areas most affected by the El Niño phenomenon are in the north, mainly in the agricultural and fishing sectors.

“In the north, the area leading to Lambeque is followed by La Libertad and Beura. Basically we will see a rebound in Lambake because it was hit hard by the El Nino phenomenon because production in the agricultural export sector has decreased.“, explain.

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The economist recalled that regeneration would also be seen in fishing activities, which would be beneficial La Libertad, Piura and AncashMinor victims Anchovy spasm After the end of the first fishing season and in the second fishing season due to less fishing.

will be in second place Southern Macro RegionAccording to Macroconsult, it could grow closer to 2% in 2024. Some regions may grow above average, like Puno.

“Although on average the macroregion grows at a rate closer to GDP, the region Puno could enjoy growth of more than 3%, after falling 8% last year due to protests It was at the beginning of last year and is going to happen again“, he demands.

For the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE), The Southern regions to lead economic growth in first half of 2024. IPE economist, Teodoro Crisolucion, if taking into account the shutdowns at the beginning of 2023, better figures are expected in the first months of 2024 in tourism activities and mining activities in the south, especially in Puno and Cusco.

Similarly, the National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI) said there are better prospects for agricultural production in the southern region as the climatic conditions are moderate and normal compared to the weather two months ago. Arequipa, Moquegua, Tacna, Madre de Dios and Apurímac.

“Southern regions are likely to have higher growth rates in the first half of the year. It is important to remember that the whole effect of the decline of agriculture towards the domestic market has played a very strong part, and that the areas under cultivation of these crops have improved considerably over what they were at their end. 2022 and early 2023“, explained Chrysologus.

In the second half of the year, the IPE economist points out that the outlook is still uncertain, but An improvement in the dynamics of private spending is expected, which will mainly benefit metropolitan Lima.

“Lima could be one of the regions most likely to benefit from a rebound in private spending in the second half of 2024.Mainly in sectors linked to consumption and investment”, commented the IPE expert.

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The chrysologist agrees that the northern regions will also have the biggest recovery in the results that can be seen in the second half of 2024.

“In the Northern Region, in the 2nd half of 2023, the regions were well affected by the contraction of agricultural exports destined for the external market, and the Northern Region is mainly commercial, while purchasing power recovered and this low inflation translated into improvement. For household consumption purposes, you will relatively benefit from this macro-region“, he says.

As stated therein Central large area, made up of areas such as Ancash, Junín, Cerro de Pasco, Huánuco, Huancavelica and Ayacucho, is expected to improve in the first half of 2024 due to better climatic conditions for agriculture. According to Macroconsult, the region could achieve 2% growth this year.

Which area grows the least?

According to Macroconsult's Foinquinos, there will be lower performance in 2024 Eastern Macro RegionWith a growth of only 1.5% above the national average.

The expert explains that the eastern macro-region, which includes areas such as Loreto, Ucayali, Amazonas and San Martin, will have less progress due to the lack of large investment potential. In the Eastern macro region, one of the least performing regions could be Loreto.

“In this area, some of these regions saw good agricultural growth last year, thus providing a greater basis for comparison this year. Besides, It is an area without major investment as there are no major projects beyond oil resources.”, he commented.

An important investment in this area, but which was completed last year, was the work of the first shopping center in Iquitos, the economist recalled.But that has already happened and low investment reduces agility”.