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:quality(75)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/elcomercio/QPNFWYWH2JCFXBENE4UC2Z46NQ.jpg "Russia | Putin revives nuclear threat at war in Ukraine: How close is that scenario really? | the world")
Less than a week after the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine, the Russian president, Vladimir PutinIn an attempt to dissuade the West from expanding its military support to Kyiv, it has renewed the shadow of a nuclear threat over the conflict.
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Putin devoted part of his State of the Nation address to both houses of the Russian parliament calling Moscow's attack on Europe “stupid” and warning NATO of the consequences if the Western alliance deploys allied troops in Ukraine.
His words came after his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, said earlier this week that the deployment of Western ground forces in the former Soviet republic “should not be ruled out,” which Putin said would have “tragic” consequences. Globally.
“We remember the fate of those who sent their troops to the border of our country. Now, the consequences for potential invaders will be very tragic,” the president said, considering Ukraine occupied by Russia to be Russian territory.
“Everything they bring up now, they scare the whole world, all of which threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and therefore threatens the destruction of civilization,” he added.
The leader of the Kremlin, the world's largest nuclear power, insisted Russian nuclear forces were “fully ready” and said the military had deployed powerful new weapons, some of which had been tested on battlefields in Ukraine.
The United States on Thursday called Putin's warning about the risk of nuclear war “irresponsible” but said there were no signs of danger. “This is not the first time we have seen reckless rhetoric from Vladimir Putin. “This is no way for the leader of a nuclear-armed nation to speak,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said.
Putin is satisfied after recent Russian advances on the battlefield and is expected to be re-elected in a presidential election this month with virtually no challenger.
Unpleasant scenes
Since launching the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has not missed an opportunity to remind the world of the Kremlin's nuclear power.
Russia transferred tactical nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus last year, and several reports this month suggested Moscow was trying to develop a nuclear space weapon capable of destroying satellites, something Putin has denied.
Under what circumstances could Moscow use tactical nuclear weapons? Secret documents obtained by the “Financial Times” newspaper 10 years ago include presentations to naval officers outlining operational principles for the use of nuclear weapons. In all cases its use is aimed at responding to a critical situation for the security of the Russian state.
The documents indicate that Russia foresees the possibility of resorting to tactical nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack, or if it detects that a foreign missile threatens its territory, even if an invasion were to take place, even if its military were to suffer severe hardship. Its territory occurs. The newspaper “La Nacion” reports that the territory or part of its submarines could be lost to ballistic missiles.
“A separate training presentation for naval officers outlines broad criteria for the use of nuclear weapons, including an enemy landing on Russian territory, the failure of units responsible for defending border areas, or an imminent enemy attack using conventional weapons,” it added. Medium.
Among other purposes, the Russian military could also use nuclear weapons to “contain states that use aggression.” […] or avoid escalating military conflicts,” “stop aggression,” prevent Russian forces from losing battles or territory, and make the Russian Navy “more effective.”
Western troops to Ukraine?
Western countries have tried to distance themselves from the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, raised by Macron.
The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain and Kyiv's other allies on Tuesday 27 opposed the move and denied the possibility of sending troops.
“The United States will not send troops to fight in Ukraine,” said Adrian Watson, a spokesman for the National Security Council, noting that “Path to Victory” approves military aid that has been blocked in Congress.
Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Sweden and the Czech Republic also spoke in the same way. The United Kingdom has assured that it does not expect a “large-scale deployment”.
point of view
“It is highly unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons at this point.”
Roberto Heimowitz
International researcher
This is not the first time Vladimir Putin has threatened nuclear war. There are two important considerations in this case. First, Putin tries to prevent NATO from sending troops to Ukraine, but this is unnecessary. The two major military powers, the US and Germany, have already said they have no plans to send troops to Ukraine. Second, Putin's threat appears to be for domestic consumption, as it was launched in a State of the Nation address and, as elections in Russia approach, the main recipient of that message is likely to be the Russian people. It is also important to consider that Putin's talk of nuclear war has somehow had a destabilizing effect on Europe.
Russia can use nuclear weapons if NATO invades its territory and Russia starts losing big, in which case it is more likely to use those weapons. In the scenario of a limited deployment of Western troops to Ukraine, not to fight, but to establish large logistics distribution and training centers, the use of nuclear weapons is highly unlikely.
A third scenario could open up if a long stalemate persists on the war front, leading Russia to use low-yield nuclear weapons to break through the Ukrainian front and make rapid advances. It's a big unknown, and it's not impossible, but it's not impossible because Putin, despite his bellicose and aggressive rhetoric, doesn't want a nuclear war that could escalate unpredictably and ultimately endanger his own power in Russia.
The possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons at this stage is very low. The main reason is that the US presidential election is approaching. Putin has high hopes that Donald Trump will be elected president, leaving a clear path for the Republican Party to abandon Ukraine and act as a pawn to Russian expansion.
