Summer 2024 will be above normal and affect 14 regions: Expected Outlook | Peru

A year ago, a similar report by Senamhi spoke of an increase in the probability of above-normal rainfall (not called Cyclone Yaku) in some regions in the summer of 2023. From that document came the risk report. That Cenepred sent in September last year to warn all authorities of the country’s heavy rains. When the season came, almost no one had a prevention plan to avoid disasters. President Dina Boluarte even admitted in March that the government did not have the means to care for the affected population.

This time, we could once again face a wetter-than-usual summer. He Technical Report N°10-2023/SENAMHI-DMA-SPC De Senamhi notes that six regions of the country covering 14 departments have a high probability of rainfall exceeding normal parameters. Chances of “above normal” rainfall are 41% for the North Coast, 39% for the Central Coast and 38% for the South Coast. This scenario has a probability of 41% in the north-western highlands, 37% in the north-eastern highlands and 34% in the lowland northern forest.

Areas included Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque, Freedom, Cajamarca, Ancash, Lima, Ica, Arequipa, Moquegua, Tacna, Amazonas, San Martín and Loreto. Not on the north coast Moderate to heavy rain events are ruled out.

Yuri Escajatillo, climate forecaster at Chenamhi, explains that this scenario is based on analysis. Sea surface temperature (SST) and historical precipitation values, given the current presence of the El Niño phenomenon known as “Global Niño” in the Central Pacific, will continue with moderate conditions until January 2024, according to ENFEN.

To get an idea of ​​what it might be”More than usual“, the expert notes Trade Maximum and minimum rainfall ranges for each climate zone are expressed in millimeters (mm). For example, on the north coast, between January and March it ranges from 98.1 mm to 255.5 mm. “More than normal is said to exceed 255.5 mm. If it is the opposite, it will mean 98.1 mm below normal rainfall.”, he explained.

Last March, during the growth of Yaku, historical records were broken in Puerto Pizarro with 225.1 mm/day of rainfall, 87.4 mm/day in Cayalti (in Lambayeque), 103.7 mm/day in Talla (La Libertad), and 66.2 mm/day in Tumbus. mm in Cerrepe (La Libertad) and 35/day mm in Trujillo (La Libertad).

The next Senamhi report, which will be released in October fortnight, is expected to have more credibility as summer approaches. The spokesperson reiterates that the objective is for officials to assess risks associated with agriculture, health, water resources and disaster risk management. “In Peru, rainfall is not only due to the El Niño phenomenon, there are other atmospheric systems such as wind that have a lot of variability and can determine rainfall. However, there is a chance of rain due to ocean warming. It remains to be seen whether the intensity is unusual, now that we are talking about heavy rain.”, Indica.

On the other hand, the scene in the south of the country is the opposite. Rainfall forecasts for the Andean region, particularly in the southern highlands, indicate a high probability of normal to below normal conditions. That’s not good news either, as drought has already wreaked havoc this year. “In Puno, last summer’s rains didn’t accumulate as expected, and the 2024 scenario looks set to go the same way” adds Escajatillo.

Danger in numbers

The National Center for Disaster Risk Assessment, Prevention and Reduction (Cenepred) does so based on the population exposed when Senamhi puts the probability of rain above normal as a percentage. According to its latest report, 1.4 million people are at very high risk of mass movements (fires, landslides, avalanches) and 1.2 million people are at very high risk of flooding across the country.

Regarding the Huaycos, the largest number of mass critical areas recorded were Lima (237), Cajamarca (168), Ancash (123) and Arequipa (121). The most populous areas most at risk of flooding are Piura (369,207 people), Iga (330,105 people) and Cajamarca (237,744 people).