The first half of the year goes by results economy 2023 is more encouraging than what we have left (0.55% decline recorded).
Although aggregate indicators for the first six months are not yet known, the economy has already outpaced recession, growing by 2.38% as of April.
What has not yet taken off is private investment. In the first quarter, it increased by only 0.3%, although forecasts for the end of the year are more optimistic with a 2.3% improvement.
Business expectations have rebounded at three and 12 months. Thus, out of 18 indicators taken into account in the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) survey, 12 are already in the optimistic range.
As for Peruvian exports, they register a slight growth of 0.9% between January and April after a 10.4% decline in the fourth month of the year, although they are expected to advance by 2.9% in 2024.
What happened to public distribution? As of June 28, only 33.6% of the budget allocated for investment projects has been disbursed, according to the Economic Transparency Portal of the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
However, Ankash government records only 14.6% advance. Meanwhile, there are seven ministries that do not spend even 20% of the allocation: Development and Social Inclusion (2.7%), Economy and Finance (3.6%), External Relations (4%), Labor and Employment Development (7.8%), Interior (14.9%). , Defense (17%), Culture (18.7%), and Manufacturing (18.8%).
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lack of work
Oscar Chavez, head of the Institute of Economics and Business Development of the Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL), said the results of the first months of the year respond to a “natural recovery” due to last year’s poor results.
“We have revised our projections from 2.6% to 2.8%, but it is not enough. An important sector that has recovered is fisheries, but it does not contribute much to GDP. We need higher growth rates, that is without doubt,” he added.
Meanwhile, for Martin Valencia, head of economic studies at the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE), efforts must be made to meet fiscal targets. Last year, the rule established a deficit of 2.4% of GDP, but it reached 2.8%.
“We need to give signs of confidence to expand the tax base. “When Peru has the demand and the resources to grow at a higher rate they are content with 2% to 3% growth,” he added.
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