Julio Velarde, president of PCRB. (Photo: Andina)
Central Reserve Bank (BCRP) President Julio Velarde Flores has predicted that the country's economic growth will be 3% in 2024.
“In the non-primary sector, which fell by 1.5% last year, we expect growth of 3.1% this year and 3% next year, giving a 3% growth in GDP this year,” he said.
In a press conference, Velarde Flores said analysts and financial institutions have raised their forecasts in line with the BCR.
According to BCRP calculations, the agricultural sector is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2024; in metal mining, 2.0%; of hydrocarbons, 1.5%; in manufacturing, 3.9%; and in fisheries, 10.5%.
He explained that inflation would have minimal impact on people's purchasing power and an environment of socio-political stability would favor a recovery in consumption and private investment.
“We are waiting for a recovery in consumption because last year it was almost stagnant, it grew only 0.1%, but we forecast it to grow 2.7% in 2024 and 2.8% the following year.”
The chairman of BCRP recalled last year that climate factors had a greater impact on economic growth.
“Weather especially affected the second semester because of much higher than average temperature, which affected crop yield, affected fishing, agriculture sector fell by almost 3%, fishing by almost 20%. We hope it will recover this year, we have 3.5% growth in agriculture sector. In January, agriculture sector It is true that the sector fell by almost 4% and the agriculture sector by 2.9%, so we expect a recovery this year.
Likewise, he noted that this year's “El Nino” event is not included in the forecasts, as its occurrence has practically been ruled out, although there is talk of a Nina, although it will strongly favor the fishing industry.
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